tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated  on line 151
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tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
tag_error <txp:poe_bbclone/> ->  : Function eregi() is deprecated  on line 88
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Stones: Schwarzes Gold

Stones: Schwarzes Gold

Schwarzes Gold

Im Moment lese ich Ausgebrannt von Eschbach und bin auch fast durch damit. In diesem Roman wird ein Szenario beschrieben, in dem die Welt ihr Ölfördermaximum erreicht hat und die Produktion langsam zu sinken beginnt. Die Folgen kann man in etwa so beschreiben: Die eigentliche Lücke zwischen Angebot und Nachfrage ist zwar anfangs relativ klein, aber da Öl unverzichtbar ist, geht ein Wettbieten um das verfügbare los. Der Preis steigt stetig und immer schneller und zwar so lange bis die ersten Bieter nicht mehr mitkommen und sich über Nachfragesenkung wieder ein Gleichgewicht im Markt einstellt. Allerdings sind wir die Bieter und wir nehmen nicht am Markt der Börse teil, sondern kaufen die Ölfolgeprodukte, vom Benzin zum Auto, von der Plastetüte bis zum Lebensmittel. Es folgt also eine globale Konjunkturdelle, Dünger und damit das Essen werden deutlich teurer, Verteilungskämpfe um die aktiven Ölfelder beginnen, Finanzkrise mit Bankenzusammenbrüchen, kollabierende Eigenheim-Immobilienmärkte weil sich kein Schwein mehr die Pendlerei zur Arbeit leisten kann und alle wieder in der City wohnen wollen, Airlines gehen pleite, da Kerosin unbezahlbar wird, ein am Boden zerstörter Automarkt, Arbeitslosigkeit, massive Sozialprobleme und das ganze gewürzt mit einem Hauch von Endzeitstimmung, da das Öl einfach zu Ende geht. Ohne einen technischen Durchbruch in der mobilen Energienutzung kann’s nicht mehr besser werden. Die Wirtschaftsstruktur der Welt schlittert trotz Atomkraft und Internet ins 19.Jahrhundert zurück.
Puh. Zum Glück ist das nur eine Fiktion und sie beginnt mit der Grundprämisse, dass im Nahen Osten des größte Ölfeld plötzlich Wasser zieht und von heute auf morgen 6% der Weltproduktion wegbricht. Das ist nicht sehr wahrscheinlich. Das geht langsamer. Aber es passiert. Schauen wir uns doch mal die Ölpreisentwicklung ab 2003 an. Kommt das nur durch den Irakkrieg? Das Buch beschreibt die ökonomischen Verkettungen der Rezession sehr detailliert und man könnte es jetzt als zeitgemäße Panikmacher-Literatur abtun. Aber es wurde im Februar 2007 veröffentlicht. Die ersten Probleme am US-Hypothekenmarkt wurden erst im Sommer des selben Jahres deutlich, auf die Wirtschaftsdaten und Erwartungen schlugen sie im Sommer 08 durch, das ist der Moment, in dem der Ölpreis wieder sank. Zu diesem Zeitpunkt hatte es schon begonnen, trotz Euro-Hochstand stieg die Inflationsrate verzögert aber deutlich, weil plötzlich Lebensmittel teurer wurden und die Spritpreise stiegen. Dann begann die Finanzkrise, der Ölpreis sackte wieder ab und die Preissteigerung mit ihm. Im Jahresmittel kamen immer noch 2,6% zusammen, trotzdem redet jetzt keiner mehr davon.
Ich will nun nicht den Teufel an die Wand malen, aber wenn ich die Ölpreisentwicklung sehe, dann bekomme ich den Eindruck, dass die Finanzkrise genau richtig kam, um eine noch viel härtere Landung hinauszuzögern. Es bleibt zu hoffen, dass nicht auch die Einsicht in das Peak Oil Problem hinausgezögert wird.

6. Februar 2009, 14:38 von Andreas Jahn

Kommentare

  1. Da kommt mir noch ein interessanter Gedanke: Die Finanzkrise kam vom US-Immobilienmarkt, weil dort plötzlich eine Menge Leute ihre Raten nicht mehr zahlen konnten. Wie kam das? Weil die Lebenshaltungskosten deutlich gestiegen sind, Ölpreisanstieg und Dollarverfall brachten einige in die Bredouille wobei die offizielle Inflationsrate von rund 4,3% für 2007 fast noch geschönt wirkt. Sollte man die Hypothekengeschichte auf die gestiegenen Preise zurückführen können, dann wäre sie eine Folge der Ölverknappung. Interessant hierbei wäre, dass die ersten, die bei der Preissteigerung in die Krise geraten, keine chinesischen Bergbauern sind sondern der untere amerikanische Mittelstand und sich deren fragiles Immobilien-Marksegment durch die windigen Finanzkonstrukte der Kreditgeber zur Bankenkrise auswuchs. Unterm Strich könnte man also sagen, dass unsere europäische Wirtschaft trotz lautem Gejammere den Ölpreis noch ganz gut abfedern konnte und wir nun “lediglich” an den Folgeschäden zu knabbern haben. Zuerst gehen also andere in die Knie und nehmen die Energiepreise wieder mit runter, das beruhigt doch.

    Andreas    9. Februar 2009, 12:37    #

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